Note: The following was the opening anecdote of my talk to the Houston World Affairs Council on April 28, 2008 entitled "The High Road to Damascus: Engage Syria's Private Sector".
“Last week was Syria week in Washington. A number of think tank folks, political activists, and in my case journalists spoke at seminars or hearings on various aspects of recent developments concerning that Arab country. I spoke at the Stimson Center on Iran’s role in Syria, specifically what we see on the ground in Damascus that indicates the state of relations between Washington’s two premier adversaries in the region. I spoke alongside Daniel Levy of the Century Foundation, who advocates engagement with Damascus, and Emile Hokayem of the Stimson Center, a critic of engagement.
I made four main points. First, that Syria’s relationship with Iran was strong but ambiguous. Second, that a recent US Executive Order seizing the assets of prominent Syrian businessman and cousin of Bashar al Assad Rami Makhlouf on charges of corruption showed that the United States was paying more attention to Syria’s economic situation - something I have advocated for the past four years. Third, that US trade sanctions against Syria were so ineffectual that I was even able to get an iphone – an item firmly banned from export to Syria. Fourth, that the current state of relations between Damascus and Washington are as bad as they have been in over forty years, and that bridging this gap in the short term is unlikely due to massively different version of what President Bashar al-Assad has agreed to in meetings in Damascus with US officials and legislators, and how this differs from US meetings with his father, Hafez.
The shooting started the next day, just as the Bush Administration released a video of an alleged Nuclear reactor that the US says Damascus constructed with North Korea’s help and which Israel bombed last September.
A journalist in the room from a newspaper in Kuwait - an important ally for the Bush Administration in the Arab World – wrote a story on the Stimson session the next day. He accurately covered most of my points on Iran’s role in Syria – that recent signs showed the roots of Tehran and Syria’s relationship do not run deep, but are spreading. But it made reference of analysts close to the government as (roughly translated) Syrian-mongers – which I didn’t say (I don’t even understand what the term means). When it came to my comments on the Syrian businessman’s designation, the newspaper quoted me as saying the move was “very smart, as the regime relies on him a lot” – which I also didn’t say. I seriously doubt that the businessman has assets in the United States, and will change Syrian foreign policy, but does highlight that the United States considers corruption in Syria as an important aspect of US Syria policy. On President Assad’s meetings with US officials, the journalist quoted me as saying what many of those who testified on Capitol Hill last week (such as Martin Indyk) said: that officials dealing with President Assad’s father, Hafez, has been a much more positive experience than dealing with his son. What the journalist failed to add to this quote were comments that Damascus feels that massive misunderstandings are taking place in those meetings, which Damascus says shows, in part, Washington’s ill will toward Damascus.
Needless to say, I’m gonna get an earful about that story when I return to Damascus.
The same day I sat in the gallery of a conference on Capitol Hill organized by the Syrian opposition group “The Damascus Declaration” – a domestic opposition group I have written about. As I approached the hearing room, one of the activists approached me and said: “Why did you say that you got an iphone in Damascus?” I was surprised, as I knew this person was not in the session at Stimson. “How did you know I said that?” I said. They responded: “Everyone is talking about it!” “But it’s the truth!” I replied. “That doesn’t matter!” they said.
It was then I realized that realized that having an honest conversation in Washington on what was actually going on on the ground in Syria is virtually impossible without taking heavy flak from both sides. So I’m going to try and do so here in Houston tonight. And I’m going to start by saying that all my comments are most definitely OFF THE RECORD!.....”
I then delivered a presentation on engaging Syria through its private sector, and why it should be an important part of US Syria strategy in the years to come. You can find the link to the report here.
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Honest talk and taking flak on Syria
Thursday, March 20, 2008
Lessons of the Franco-Syrian Fiasco
From this month's edition of Syria Today Magazine.
Lessons of the Franco-Syrian Fiasco
Words Peter Harling
The key to ending the stalemate between Syria and the West starts with understanding why the French initiative failed.
French mediation efforts in Lebanon were based above all on the assumption that initiating a dialogue with Syria would bear more fruit than the pressures exerted by the Bush administration. The failure of this enthusiastic push now leaves many Western and Arab officials under the impression that dialogue is in itself sterile, thus reactivating a policy of isolation and sanctions, of questionable effectiveness. If the next American administration is to break the stalemate, it will have to learn the lessons of this aborted rapprochement.
It is a mutual disappointment for Paris and Damascus. President Sarkozy wanted to score a rapid, spectacular success, in accordance with the image that he seems to cultivate of politics and of himself. More fundamentally, his credibility in Washington was at stake: having obtained “carte blanche” in Lebanon, he could not tolerate for long a situation of uncertainty and stagnation.
But a hasty solution was not to Damascus’ liking, as – from its perspective – the stakes involved should induce caution. Indeed, since the Syrian withdrawal in 2005, the Lebanese scene has undergone dramatic changes, creating both temptation and angst. Syrian influence may emerge strengthened or considerably weakened – a stated objective of Washington and its Lebanese allies. Notably, the replacement of the pro-Syrian President Lahoud is likely to have profound repercussions on a political system founded on subtle balances and on rules that are up for renegotiation.
The question of whether Syria wants to restore its full hegemony over its neighbour remains open to debate. What is certain is that Lebanon is of crucial importance to Damascus, something French enticements could not eclipse. The feeling that Beirut is historically the beachhead through which all attempts at destabilising Damascus are initiated, remains firmly rooted. Hezbollah, which remains a bargaining card for the return of the Golan Heights (occupied by Israel), appears at present as Syria’s key asset in maintaining its influence in Lebanon, thwarting the perceived malevolent projects of a pro-Western majority, and projecting its strategic importance. Thus it is doubtful that Damascus would try to force a solution that Hezbollah would begrudge. However, the French, by delegating dealings with Hezbollah to Syria, deprived themselves of the means to understand – and therefore overcome – its red lines. The Elysée expected Damascus to twist Hezbollah’s arm, while treating the other major player of the Lebanese opposition, General Aoun, as though his only option was political suicide.
But Syria is only part of the solution in Lebanon, and dialogue is no substitute for a genuine mediation effort aiming to reduce the still-yawning gaps. From Syria’s point of view, France also was only part of the solution. The rapprochement only made sense if it initiated a wider dynamic, heralding a package deal: recognition of its interests in Lebanon, reconciliation with Arab states, a change of mind of the United States and negotiations over the Golan. Damascus first wanted to see if Paris could alter Washington’s policies. Then, as the first effects materialized, Syria made some timid overtures, by approving the principle of a consensus president, facilitating the departure of Lahoud and participating in the Annapolis peace conference – which sowed doubt among its allies with regards to its potential change of camp.
Given the potentially high price for Damascus of any further concession, matters stopped there, to the Elysée’s frustration. Irritation climaxed as Damascus, seeking to gain time, repeatedly reassured its French partners about the imminence of a solution which was each time postponed by the Lebanese opposition. The latter’s multiplying and shifting demands, provocative Syrian declarations and renewed political assassinations finally convinced Paris that Syria was playing a double game; a forceful return of the Bush administration in Lebanon led Damascus to draw the same conclusion.
As a result, the Elysée has been weighing up various ways to punish Syria. President Sarkozy, who could have been President Assad’s best friend, could now become his worst enemy, if his efforts at sanctioning him are as energetic as was his seduction campaign. In Damascus, a belligerent discourse has come back into vogue. It refers in an almost obsessive manner to the dignity and sovereignty of a country that will not yield to pressure. But no one doubts this anymore. The question that arises is which approach has a chance of resolving a crisis that is doomed to worsen. Mere “dialogue”changes nothing, ultimately. The incoming American administration will have to engage in tough negotiations aimed at a package deal, to know if an agreement in Lebanon is possible… and ascertain, if not, that a showdown is inevitable.
Peter Harling is the Iraq-Syria-Lebanon project director at the International Crisis Group.
Saturday, February 16, 2008
Syria denies formation of Syrian-Iranian commission into Moughniyah assassination
Syria's state SANA news service denied today Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Reza Sheik Attar's statement that a joint Iranian-Syrian committee has been established to investigate the murder of Imad Moughniyah. The communique's terse language - reminiscent of SANA's December statement denying President Assad discussed with Rep. Patrick Kennedy the release of Damascus Declaration activists from jail - signals that Syria isn't letting even its closest allies near the criminal investigation.
Meanwhile, Walid Mouallem says the assassination "destroyed all hopes to revive the peace process."
A news roundup follows...
Syrian Arab news agency - SANA - Syria
An Official Information Source Denies Reports on the Formation of a Joint Committee to Investigate Moghnia Assassination
Local News /
Feb 16, 2008 - 11:15 AM
Damascus,(SANA)-
A Syrian official information source has denied some media reports on the formation of a joint Syrian-Iranian-Hizbullah committee in the investigation into the assassination crime of Haj. Imad Moughnia , stressing that such reports are baseless.
In a statement given to SANA last night , the source indicated that only the Syrian specialized authorities are conducting the investigation into the assassination crime of Haj. Moughnia .
A.N.Idelbi
Syria Denies Joint Iran Investigation
DAMASCUS, Syria (AP) — Syria denied Iranian claims that the two countries would conduct a joint investigation into the assassination of a top Hezbollah commander, the Syrian state news agency reported.
Imad Mughniyeh, who was one of the world's most wanted fugitives, was killed in a car bomb in the Syrian capital Tuesday night. He was accused of masterminding attacks that killed hundreds of Americans in Lebanon in the 1980s.
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Reza Sheik Attar announced the joint probe on Friday, according to Iran's official news agency.
But a Syrian official dismissed the report as "totally baseless" and said Damascus would conduct the investigation alone, Syria's state-run news agency reported late Friday. It did not name the official.
Hezbollah and its Iranian backers have accused Israel of killing Mughniyeh. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah vowed in a eulogy to the slain militant on Thursday that his Shiite guerrilla group would retaliate against Israeli interests anywhere in the world.
Israel has denied any role in the killing, and Syria has not said who it believes was behind the blast.
Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki met with senior Syrian officials in Damascus on Thursday and Friday to discuss Mughniyeh's assassination. Attar said Friday that Iran and Syria agreed to the joint investigation during Mottaki's visit.
Mughniyeh was one of the most elusive and notorious Hezbollah commanders, believed to have masterminded suicide bombings in Lebanon during the 1974-1990 civil war that killed hundreds of Americans and French. He was also blamed for taking Westerners hostage and the 1985 hijacking of a TWA airliner in which a U.S. Navy diver was killed.
In the 1990s, he went into hiding, and Western and Israeli intelligence accuse him of planning suicide bombings against the Israeli Embassy and a Jewish cultural center in Argentina that killed over 100 people. Over the past 15 years, he is believed to have moved in secret between Lebanon, Iran and Syria.
International Herald Tribune
Iran joins Syria in hunt for killers of militant
The Associated Press
Friday, February 15, 2008
DAMASCUS: Syria and Iran have agreed to conduct a joint investigation into the assassination of Imad Mugniyah, a commander of their ally Hezbollah, who was killed by a car bomb this week in the Syrian capital, Iran's state news agency reported Friday.
An Iranian television station aired what it said was mobile phone video footage of the blast in Damascus.
The grainy, dark images appeared to have been taken moments after the explosion Tuesday night. They show a vehicle engulfed in flames on a street at night, and several people running, apparently bystanders. It cannot be seen whether anyone is in the vehicle in the images, taken from a distance and lasting a few seconds.
The video was shown on Iran's state-run Arabic channel, Al Alam. The station did not say how it obtained the footage.
The Iranian foreign minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, met in Damascus on Friday with the Syrian vice president, Farouk al-Sharaa, to discuss the assassination. Iran and Hezbollah have accused Israel of killing Mugniyah, and Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, vowed in a eulogy Thursday that his Shiite guerrilla group would retaliate against Israeli interests anywhere in the world.
"We discussed the terrorist crime that led to the martyrdom of one of the most senior commanders in the Lebanese Islamic Resistance, martyr Imad Mugniyah," Mottaki told reporters after his meeting with Sharaa.
Israel has denied any role in the killing, and Syria has not said who it believes was behind the blast. On Thursday, the Syrian foreign minister, Walid al-Moallem, said he expected the perpetrators to be identified soon.
In Tehran, Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Reza Sheik Attar said that during Mottaki's visit to Damascus, which began Thursday, Iran and Syria had agreed to form a joint investigation team to "look into the root causes and dimensions of the assassination to identify the perpetrators of this dirty crime," the state IRNA news agency reported.
Mugniyah, one of the most elusive and notorious Hezbollah commanders, was believed to have masterminded suicide bombings that killed hundreds of people, including American and French military personnel, during Lebanon's 1974-1990 civil war, as well as hostage-takings of Westerners and the 1985 hijacking of a TWA airliner in which a U.S. Navy diver was killed.
In the 1990s he went into hiding, and Western and Israeli intelligence agencies accused him of having planned suicide bombings against the Israeli Embassy and a Jewish cultural center in Argentina that killed more than 100 people. Over the past 15 years, he is believed to have moved in secret between Lebanon, Iran and Syria.
Mottaki attended Mugniyah's funeral Thursday in Beirut and met later in the day with President Bashar al-Assad of Syria to discuss the assassination. On Friday, he held talks with the Damascus-based leaders of the Palestinian militant groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
Khaled Mashaal, Hamas's exiled leader, said Thursday that Mugniyah's death would not deter the militant Palestinian group from continuing its resistance against Israel.
"We accept the challenge and we are not afraid at all," Mashaal said at a wake for Mugniyah at a Palestinian refugee camp near Damascus.
In Iran, a former president, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, condemned the United States and Israel for welcoming Mugniyah's assassination, saying the car bomb that killed him was an act of terrorism.
Notes:
International Herald Tribune Copyright © 2008 The International Herald Tribune | www.iht.com
Syrian FM says assassination destroyed all hopes of peace
JPost.com Staff , THE JERUSALEM POST Feb. 15, 2008
Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem on Thursday said that Syria will "prove beyond any doubt" who is responsible for the assassination of Hizbullah arch-terrorist and operations officer Imad Mughniyeh in Damascus.
Muallem said that Syria is conducting an investigation and that "we hope to near the results soon."
He also said that the assassination has destroyed "all hopes to revive the peace process" between Israel and Syria. "Whoever seeks peace does not act in terror. Whoever seeks peace does not place a siege on the Gaza Strip while almost a million and a half Palestinians are struggling for their lives."
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Speculation rages over Imad Moughniyah assassination
Those of us in Syria spent the day scratching our heads over the assassination of Imad Moughniyah by car bomb in Kafr Suseh, Damascus' newest upscale neighborhood complete with two shopping malls and adjacent a number of security offices. I heard the blast from my apartment in Jisr al-Abyad nearly 3 km away, but dismissed it due to the country's strong security. A work colleague walking back to his hotel from the Sham city center mall in Kafr Suseh actually saw the blast - a ball of flame shooting three stories high into the air.
So many questions remain. How could this happen in a country renowned for security? Its true that an attempt was made to assassinate a Palestinian official a few years ago, but that bomb missed its target and was far too small to do the job.
If it was an outside power (Syrians are saying Israel is main suspect), how could they have penetrated the security surrounding one of the world's most wanted men ($25m bounty on his head)? Of all areas in Damascus, Kafr Suseh - which is adjacent a number of Damascus' security agency Headquarters, is the most secure of all.
And last but not least... What was he doing in Damascus?
Hezbollah's most wanted commander killed in Syria bomb
By Tom Perry and Laila Bassam
BEIRUT (Reuters) - Senior Hezbollah commander Imad Moughniyah, on the United States' most wanted list for attacks on Israeli and Western targets, has been killed by a bomb attack in Damascus, the Lebanese group said on Wednesday.
Hezbollah accused Israel of assassinating Moughniyah, who was head of the Hezbollah security network during Lebanon's 1975-90 civil war, by planting a bomb in his car. Iran also blamed Israel and condemned the attack as an act of "state terrorism".
In Gaza, Hamas Islamists called for the Arab world to unite against Israel and Iran condemned it
Israel denied any involvement in the killing, seen as a major blow to Syrian- and Iranian-backed Hezbollah that fought a 34-day war with Israel in 2006.
Moughniyah, 45, was killed late on Tuesday. He had long been on a list of foreigners Israel wanted to kill or capture and the United States had offered a $5 million reward for his capture.
"His killing is a huge blow to Hezbollah. It is very indicative," Magnus Ranstorp, terrorism expert at the Swedish National Defence College, told Reuters.
Moughniyah was implicated in the 1983 bombings of the U.S. embassy and U.S. Marine and French peacekeeping barracks in Beirut, which killed over 350 people, as well as the 1992 bombing of the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires and the kidnapping of Westerners in Lebanon in the 1980s.
The United States indicted him for his role in planning and participating in the June 14, 1985, hijacking of a U.S. TWA airliner and the killing of an American passenger.
"For the U.S. administration Imad was the most wanted terrorist before Osama Bin Laden appeared," Ranstorp said. "For many years, many different teams were looking for him, trying to exact the price for the catalogue of attacks he allegedly carried out."
Hezbollah, a strong political and military force in Lebanon, announced the assassination and called followers to his funeral on Thursday.
"After a life full of jihad, sacrifices and accomplishments ... Haj Imad Moughniyah ... died a martyr at the hands of the Israeli Zionists," said Hezbollah.
The 2006 war with Israel was triggered by a Hezbollah cross-border raid in which two Israeli soldiers were captured. According to Israeli intelligence assessments, Moughniyah was involved in masterminding the operation.
PRIME TARGET
Israel also accuses Moughniyah of planning the 1994 bombing of a Jewish centre in Buenos Aires that killed 85 people and of involvement in a 1992 bombing of the Israeli embassy in the Argentine capital that killed 28.
"He was not only being targeted by Israel, but also by the Americans and many other parties," said former Mossad head Danny Yatom on Israel Radio. "He was one of the terrorists with the most amount of intelligence agencies and states chasing him."
Moughniyah had been a very tough target to track, he said, describing his death as a severe blow to Hezbollah.
"He behaved with extreme caution for many years. It was impossible even to obtain his picture. He never appeared or spoke before the media.
"His identity was hidden. His steps were hidden. He behaved with extreme caution, and that was the reason it was difficult to get to him for so many years."
The United States tried to detain Moughniyah several times, including a 1995 attempt to arrest him when the plane he was traveling was due to stop in Saudi Arabia. Diplomats said Saudi officials refused to allow the plane to land.
Syrian authorities had no comment on Tuesday's attack which took place in an upmarket district that houses an Iranian school, a police station and a Syrian intelligence office.
Witnesses at the scene told Reuters they saw security officers hauling the body away. Scores of police and intelligence officers rushed to the site. A police truck towed away the destroyed car, a new model Mitsubishi Pajero.
Senior Hamas officials, including leader Khaled Meshaal, live in exile in Damascus.
"Israel rejects the attempts of terror elements to attribute to Israel any involvement in this incident," Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's office said in a statement.
Moughniyah was thought to be the commander of Islamic Jihad, a shadowy pro-Iranian group which emerged in Lebanon in the early 1980s and was believed linked to Hezbollah.
Islamic Jihad kidnapped several Western hostages, including Americans, in Beirut in the mid 1980s.
The group, which was founded in 1982, killed some of its captives and exchanged others for U.S. weapons to Iran in what was later known as the Iran-Contra scandal. Among those killed was the CIA's station chief.
Moughniyah's brother was killed in a car bomb in Beirut in 1994. Reports at the time suggested Imad had been the target. Moughniyah had spent much of the 1990s in Iran.
For a FACTBOX on Moughniyah click on
(Additional reporting by Nadim Ladki in Beirut and Adam Entous and Ari Rabinovitch in Jerusalem; Editing by Samia Nakhoul)
Saturday, February 9, 2008
Syria develops missile with Iran's aid
Syria develops new missile with Iran's aid
Published: Feb. 8, 2008 at 7:18 PM
DAMASCUS, Syria, Feb. 8 (UPI) -- Syria says it has developed, with Iranian help, a surface-to-surface missile that could better target Israeli installations like airports and factories.
It is believed the missile is more accurate than other similar surface-to-surface weapons in the Syrian arsenal, Haaretz said.
This apparent Syria-Iran deal comes at a time when Israeli defense sources have expressed growing concern about Syria's rearmament program, with most arms reportedly supplied by Russia.
Among other weapons, Syria reportedly has recently acquired the self-propelled Pantsyr air defense missile system, capable of firing between eight and 12 missiles and seen as a possible threat to Israeli aircraft.
Damascus also is said to have modern anti-tank missiles that are reportedly able to stop the most advanced main battle tank of the IDF, the Merkava Mark IV.
Mossad chief Meir Dagen told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, however, that there are no indications Damascus has any plans to initiate military action against Israel.
Saturday, December 15, 2007
Damascus cracks down on dissent, again, after US engagement
Following Syria's attendance of the Annapolis Peace Summit in late November, Syrian authorities have been busy cracking down on domestic opponents (see full story below). The wave of arrests targets members of the Damascus Declaration (see my report) - whose peaceful manifesto for democratic change united the opposition in 2005-2006 as international pressure bore down on Damascus over accusations of its involvement in the murder of former Lebanese premier Rafik al-Hariri.
The arrests follow a similar crackdown last spring, following a high-profile visit by a US Congressional Delegation led by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, on members of the Beirut-Damascus/Damascus-Beirut Declaration - a Syrian-Lebanese opposition manifesto formed after the Damascus Declaration.
Both waves of arrests following high-profile US engagement accompany a trend of wide-spread restrictions on cultural and education cooperation with Americans in Syria.
Challenged, Syria Extends Crackdown on Dissent
Syrian authorities this week arrested more than 30 people who had been working for political change, escalating a crackdown on dissent just a week after critics elected a leadership committee in an unusually direct and public challenge to President Bashar al-Assad’s authority.
A majority of those arrested were questioned and released, dissidents and human rights advocates said. But three of the most outspoken opposition leaders remained in custody on Thursday, and others had been summoned for questioning.
Last month, government security forces shut Facebook, the online host to a vibrant if virtual debate on the president. On Sunday, security agents began rounding up dozens of dissidents who had been meeting to create a joint opposition front, acting like a political party despite emergency laws that ban any group not connected with the government and ruling Baath Party.
The arrests followed Syria’s participation in the Middle East peace forum at Annapolis, Md., which was seen in the region as a coup for Syria and a sign of a thaw in relations between Mr. Assad and the White House.
Emboldened by a sense that Syria’s tough anti-American policies have paid dividends, human rights advocates say, the authorities have turned to closing the last channels of public debate.
“This goes back to what we’ve always seen as a problem, that the opening with the West has never been contingent on Syria improving its human rights records,” Nadim Houry, who tracks Syria for Human Rights Watch, said. “It’s contingent on Syria cooperating on Lebanon, Iraq and the peace process.”
Dissidents and human rights advocates contend that the fact that intellectuals with no political organization, and with many leaders who are frail or in jail, still pose a threat is a sign that the government is weak.
Akram Bunni, a newspaper columnist and brother of an imprisoned human rights lawyer, was detained Tuesday; he still writes in Arab papers of the “moral bankruptcy” of Mr. Assad’s rule.
“They’re concerned about public opinion,” he said. “They don’t want anyone, internationally or internally, to see that there are public figures who might be an alternative to the regime.”
Dissidents say the crackdown is, paradoxically, a sign of strength and of weakness — the government has consolidated enough internal power to re-establish “red lines” limiting public criticism of its absolute leader.
Mr. Assad briefly allowed free expression and civil society activity when he assumed the presidency after the death of his father, Hafez al-Assad, in 2000. But he has gradually tightened control over the small political class, with arrests and new rules. In the past year, security services have arrested not only seasoned political advocates but also people who posted comments deemed subversive on Web sites.
Still, dissidents challenge the government, disobeying a ban on public meetings.
On Dec. 1, Riad Seif, a former businessman and member of Parliament and now an opposition spokesman, held a meeting with more than 160 advocates who had signed the Damascus declaration in 2005, calling on the state to lift emergency laws and allow free speech and political organization, Syrian rights advocates said.
In a challenge to the government, which prohibits independent political parties, the dissidents formed the National Council, electing a president and leadership committee. The group includes Communists, Islamists, former Baathists and Kurds. Younger dissidents schooled on the Internet have also spoken out, mostly on opposition Web sites and on Facebook groups. Some have ended up in prison, and others, like Ahed al-Hendi and Muhammad al-Abdallah, have fled to Beirut. “They are afraid because people online meet together, share ideas, criticize the regime,” said Mr. Hendi, 23, who was held for a month after posting critical reports. “They are strong on one hand, but on another they are so weak they are afraid of an Internet cafe.”
Despite contentions that the crackdown stems from insecurity, some Syrian analysts and diplomats say the Assad rule has staved off several crises and now feels strong enough to restore limits that once cowed critics.
“States around us are collapsing and there’s a high perception of danger, but Syria is deterring the dangers,” an analyst who spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of government harassment, said. “The opposition doesn’t pose a threat.”
Sunday, November 25, 2007
Syria to attend Annapolis Peace Conference
In a somewhat unexpected development, Syria announced today that it will send its deputy Foreign Minster, Faisal Mekdad, to the Annapolis Peace Conference. Unexpected because Syria's still invited after it didn't use its influence among its allies in Lebanon to compromise on a president there before last Friday's deadline..... this story will continue to unfold in the coming days... key to the report below are Syrian claims that the Syrian-Israeli track is on the schedule...
Syria will attend Mideast summit
Los Angeles Times Staff Writers
9:44 AM PST, November 25, 2007
DAMASCUS — In a move that could bolster the credibility of the Bush administration's upcoming Mideast peace talks, Syria has decided to send a representative to attend the conference this week in Annapolis, Md., the country's official news agency, Sana, reported today.
Deputy foreign minister Faysal Moqdad will attend Tuesday's talks as head of a Syrian delegation, the news agency reported. Syria decided to attend after gaining confirmation that the disputed Golan Heights, which Israel seized in the 1967 Arab-Israeli war, would be on the agenda, a ranking Syrian official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because he is not authorized to speak to the press.
"We received what we have asked for, which is the schedule, and on it is the Syrian-Israeli track," said the official. "Based on that, we decided to go."
Fifteen Arab states and dozens more countries and international organizations plan to send officials to attend the one-day talks, which are meant as a springboard for future dialogue to resolve the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict, viewed as a source of radicalism throughout the Middle East.
Syria's decision to attend the conference will please many U.S. and Israeli officials eager to make the talks appear successful. But it will likely upset Iran, which has become Damascus' biggest ally at a time when the West and fellow Arab states have spurned the country of 19 million over its support for Iranian-backed militants in Lebanon, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.
Tehran has vehemently denounced the Annapolis conference.
"They [the U.S. and Israel] intend to deceive a bunch of people who are like themselves in a watery conference and make them give concessions to the criminal Zionists," Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said today, according to the Fars News Agency.
Damascus may have decided to buck Tehran because Americans met its condition of including the Golan Heights on the agenda and would face criticism as an obstacle to peace if it then failed to attend, an analyst said.
Sending Moqdad instead of the more senior foreign minister, Walid Moallem, may be a concession to Iran, said the analyst, speaking on condition of anonymity. But Moqdad, a seasoned Syrian diplomat, is considered a relative heavyweight within the Damascus' political elite. Emad Mustapha, Syria's well-connected envoy to Washington, will also attend the talks, the official in Damascus said.
Ahmadinejad and Syrian President Bashar Assad spoke today in a phone conversation and issued a joint statement affirming that conferences such as Annapolis "are destined to failure even before they start," Fars reported.
But Ahmadinejad and his circle of hard-liners had also expressed regret that so many countries in the region had decided to attend the conference, Fars reported.
"What results could they obtain from such conferences in the last 60 years that they want to repeat it now?" the Iranian president said.
daragahi@latimes.com Special correspondent Ziad Haydar reported from Damascus and staff writer Borzou Daragahi from Beiru
